5/15/2017

Behavior changes quickly

When are AV's coming?

What frameworks exist now?

  • Sketch planning models
  • Adjustments to trip rates/daily activity patterns
  • Something else?

Passive Data Model

Traditional Model

Passive Data Model

MATSim

  • Multiple Agent Transportation Simulator
  • Implements replanning with an evolutionary algorithm

MATSim Scoring

MATSim Plan Evolution

Asheville Implementation

Modeling Autonomous Vehicles

What will AV's do?

From Isaac (2016):

  • Utopia: Shared, affordable AVs will reduce parking needs, improve mobility for disadvantaged populations, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

  • Nightmare: Privately owned AVs will lower the cost of travel, enabling longer commutes, facilitating urban sprawl, and exacerbating traffic congestion.

Scenarios

  • Baseline: 2010 demand, initial mode choice determined by vehicle ownership
  • Random replacement
  • Low-Income weighted
  • Small fleet
  • Private AV coming soon

AV Delay

Scenario Average Wait Time [s] Std.Dev. Wait Time
Random 1.3 9.4
Low-Income 1.2 5.2
Better Utility 1.2 7.4
Small Fleet 63.1 104.3

Utilization

Utilization: Small Fleet

Travel Mode

VMT

Benefits

  • Robust microsimulation
  • Many different scenarios
  • Quick deployment

Limitations and next steps

  • Heterogenous populations
  • A mix of private and shared is likely