TRB 2016 Blue Ribbon Committee
16th National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

An Integrated Land Use And Transportation Model For Anticipating Impacts Of Autonomous Vehicles On Location Choices

Corresponding Author: Sevgi Erdogan, University of Maryland

Presented By: Sevgi Erdogan, University of Maryland


Autonomous and connected vehicles are on the horizon. Most experts agree that it is not a question of whether these technologies will be adopted but when they will emerge as commercially viable and how quickly they will dominate the market. Transportation planners and modelers have naturally taken notice and started to examine the implications of these technologies on travel demand and network operations. There has, however, been a paucity of research on the impacts of autonomous and connected vehicles (AVs) on the organization of land use patterns. Some have presented hypothesis on these matters but have not yet tested to determine which ones hold up and under what assumptions. This research utilizes an integrated travel demand and land use model for the Baltimore Washington Region, Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) and the Simple Land Use Orchestrator (SILO), to examine the implication that changing travel patterns will have on household location choices. We will emphasize modeling challenges in statewide transportation models in incorporating AVs. Various future scenarios will be built based on future projections and expectations and impacts will be analyzed focusing on policy implications. Additionally, we apply different exogenous employment allocations to determine how household locations differ under varied employment growth patterns. This research provides a framework for using integrated transportation and land use models to study the impact of autonomous and connected vehicles beyond that transportation sector and provides specific measurements of these impacts in the Baltimore Washington region. These results are not the final word on the impacts of these emerging technologies but provide a starting point for extending the conversation beyond the roadways.


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